Will the biggest news be 20 megapixel cameraphones or cyber warfare? Find out what I think here, starting with the most obvious:
10. Multi-core processors will show up in mobile devices
Ok, so there are a plenty of processors that are faster than 1 GHz and many with several cores on a single die. But as of now, there are NO smartphones or tablets that are widely sold with these processors. Qualcomm has already announced the third generation of the Snapdragon processor that will feature two cores clocked at 1.2GHz. TI has announced that the OMAP 4440 chipset which will be up to 1.5GHz dual core. The NVIDIA Tegra2 will also be dropping this year with dual cores for tablets and possibly smartphones. What will this mean for us? We'll see HD video recording, video chatting, augmented reality applications, up to 20MP in a cameraphone, and soo much more. So, smartphones will get faster... duh! Well, what about something less predictable, like stereoscopic 3D televisions.
9. Stereoscopic 3D TV will lose the glasses
I am fairly confident that one of the larger tech companies (Toshiba?) that produces these sets will begin to release them in the US this year. They may not show up till Q2 or Q3, but i'm sure they will make a huge splash at CES which may open the floodgates of interest. Although many consumers may still be weary of 3D, the ability to experience this without specialty equipment will likely attract a lot of attention. Now, from flat panels back to handhelds, lets talk about video chatting.
8. Mobile video chatting will become very popular
It's not difficult to expect that the adoption of video chatting from cell phones and other mobile devices will come to a serious head this next year. The number of devices that support this is increasing continuously and 3.5G devices and subscribers will continue to increase throughout this year. The Apple iPad 2 and the Blackberry Playbook will likely be the most anticipated tech stories for the start of this year and both will support video chatting. If the adoption of other heavyweights including the iPhone 4, Samsung Galaxy Tab and HTC Evo 4G is any indication of what to expect from similar devices over this next year, then it's fairly safe to assume that video chatting will be everywhere the same way that Bluetooth headsets sprung up everywhere. However, I don't expect everyone to have it in the same way that many people, myself included, have found no use for Bluetooth headsets.
7. Web apps and the cloud will change how you use computers
Cloud computing in this context means the movement of applications and processing power from the client devices like PCs and handheld devices to web servers. Web apps are dedicated applications which are hosted on web servers to provide access to specialized functions (e.g. Google Calendar). There are a myriad of cloud computing solutions and web applications that are available online for many different purposes. The big change that I expect is that consumers will get more comfortable with the idea of having a majority of their content hosted and simply accessing these resources from whatever devices they use. Chrome OS (Operating System) will be released for laptops this year which will mark a significant milestone for this trend. At the same time, the momentum behind tablets seems like it will continue to drive increased adoption throughout the year. What this means is that many people will relegate the contents of their hard drives to the internet and adopt a cloud computing model which relies heavily on web applications. Should be an interesting to watch, just like 3D.
6. The year of stereoscopic 3D is coming... again
Ok, so it was pretty much a consensus that 2010 was the year of 3D. Want proof? Read this Oh No They Didn't! blog entry or any weekend edition of a newspaper from last year. Based on this, I'm going to make a prediction that 2011 will be the year that consumer stereoscopic 3D really begins to make a big splash away from the big screen. I expect that by year's end, we'll have seen stereoscopic 3D handheld gaming system (already on the way), 3D cameras and camcorders (already available), 3D tablets, 3D laptops, 3D phone apps, 3D websites, and I even believe that there might be an announcement of 3D billboards, although I don't think we'll see any actual installations this year. There's going to likely be a lot of fuming and fussing over compatibility between displays and glasses as well, which is another reason why I believe that although glasses-free systems are very limited, they will still capture a big segment of the stereoscopic 3D market.
5. The social web will become a new layer of the informational web
I believe that this year will see the first signs of a social layer to the web that basically extends beyond standard web sites to provide an experience of the internet that is both new and different. Technologies and standards like OAuth and OpenID will enable people on diverse social networks to interact actively. This will mean that you don't need to register for every website and service that you want to get access to. Honestly, just having to fill out a five-segment form has dissuaded my curiosity in many, many forums and other websites. So instead of clacking in another form, all you need to do is click a button that authorizes a service like, Google, Paypal or Facebook to share the required information with that particular website. What we will begin to see is services that extend this functionality so that people can communicate across various social networks and tools that allow you to take just the elements of your social network with you as you browse the web. E.g., you might be able to Facebook chat with someone on Gmail while you're shopping on eBay or browsing elsewhere on the web. All this without tabbing back and forth between windows. This is a sign of a true 'social' web because it abstracts your social contacts, information and services from the particular websites and providers. It will be similar to how cell phones work: you won't be stuck calling only the people on your network...
4. Smartphones will become priority targets for viruses
3. Cyber wars against companies and countries
This is one of the more baseless predictions that I am making, but we did see signs of this in the news last year.
- The was an attack by WikiLeaks supporters against PayPal, MasterCard, Visa and other companies.
- The Stuxnet virus was allegedly targeted at specific industrial infrastructure in an Iranian nuclear power plant.
2. Beginning of the end for plastic cards??
Now, I am in no way saying that plastic form-factor credit cards are going away, or really anywhere for that fact. But considering the continued adoption of smartphones, it is only natural to expect that people will be more willing to let their phones pay the bill. However, security, reliability and acceptability are important to consumers and you also have the classic chicken-and-the-egg scenario. People may not want to ditch the card because what if the restaurant doesn't have a way to accept payments from the phone. Business may also not want to invest in the technology if there is not sufficient customer interest to make it sensible. And there are other concerns too e.g. what if your phone dies? But the undeniable fact here is that if everyone else is doing it, you will do it too. And since everyone will have a smart(er) phone, it will only make sense for businesses and individuals to move towards this technology. Check out the way Hatians are adopting this: http://www.pri.org/business/nonprofits/mobile-banking-flourishes-in-haiti.html. I think that widespread adoption in the US will begin to show up by the end of this year.
1. Facebook will finally support video chat
This prediction is almost entirely speculative, but I just don't understand why Facebook does not natively support video chatting or partner with an entity that does like Skype. Facebook is making strides in other areas however, including e-mail and combined messaging services, the 'new' profile pages, and the push to get Facebook developers to use Oauth 2.0. This is why I'm quite sure that they have explored the idea and might have some pre-beta version floating around somewhere in Facebook. With increasing demand and adoption of video chatting on a massive scale, I think that Facebook will either have to support this natively or watch a lot of their chat usage drop away. Noone will quit using Facebook, they just won't use Facebook chat quite as much.
The take-away
There is no certainty about the direction that technology will go over any year. Although announcements of products are typically made months ahead of release, surprises abound without ceasing. Products at times show up on the market with little or no expectation, some expected products get delayed or shelved indefinitely, while other products get released but then removed from the market within weeks of the initial release. All this makes it quite difficult to speculate about where consumer technology will be in 12 months and that is also what makes it interesting. For the moment, however, I will enjoy this arbitrary opportunity to reflect on the past few months and to plan for the next. Since it is this difficult to know what next best thing will be, I'm trying hard to enjoy the tech stuff that I have now for as long as I can - landfills and developing countries could use less tech waste anyway. I hope that you have a happy 2011!
