Tech Predictions for 2011

There were so many unpredictable things that happened last year. Haiti was ravaged, Wikileaks shook the world, Google killed yet another product (Nexus 1), and so much more. However, it is still so entertaining to try and predict what will happen over this next year. Some events will be very easy to predict while others are entirely unpredictable. My hope is that the combination of expectation and speculation should produce an interesting picture of where the erratic world of tech might be by the end of this next year.

Will the biggest news be 20 megapixel cameraphones or cyber warfare? Find out what I think here, starting with the most obvious:

10. Multi-core processors will show up in mobile devices

Ok, so there are a plenty of processors that are faster than 1 GHz and many with several cores on a single die. But as of now, there are NO smartphones or tablets that are widely sold with these processors. Qualcomm has already announced the third generation of the Snapdragon processor that will feature two cores clocked at 1.2GHz. TI has announced that the OMAP 4440 chipset which will be up to 1.5GHz dual core. The NVIDIA Tegra2 will also be dropping this year with dual cores for tablets and possibly smartphones. What will this mean for us? We'll see HD video recording, video chatting, augmented reality applications, up to 20MP in a cameraphone, and soo much more. So, smartphones will get faster... duh! Well, what about something less predictable, like stereoscopic 3D televisions.

9. Stereoscopic 3D TV will lose the glasses

I am fairly confident that one of the larger tech companies (Toshiba?) that produces these sets will begin to release them in the US this year. They may not show up till Q2 or Q3, but i'm sure they will make a huge splash at CES which may open the floodgates of interest. Although many consumers may still be weary of 3D, the ability to experience this without specialty equipment will likely attract a lot of attention. Now, from flat panels back to handhelds, lets talk about video chatting.

8. Mobile video chatting will become very popular

It's not difficult to expect that the adoption of video chatting from cell phones and other mobile devices will come to a serious head this next year. The number of devices that support this is increasing continuously and 3.5G devices and subscribers will continue to increase throughout this year. The Apple iPad 2 and the Blackberry Playbook will likely be the most anticipated tech stories for the start of this year and both will support video chatting. If the adoption of other heavyweights including the iPhone 4, Samsung Galaxy Tab and HTC Evo 4G is any indication of what to expect from similar devices over this next year, then it's fairly safe to assume that video chatting will be everywhere the same way that Bluetooth headsets sprung up everywhere. However, I don't expect everyone to have it in the same way that many people, myself included, have found no use for Bluetooth headsets.

7. Web apps and the cloud will change how you use computers

Cloud computing in this context means the movement of applications and processing power from the client devices like PCs and handheld devices to web servers.  Web apps are dedicated applications which are hosted on web servers to provide access to specialized functions (e.g. Google Calendar). There are a myriad of cloud computing solutions and web applications that are available online for many different purposes. The big change that I expect is that consumers will get more comfortable with the idea of having a majority of their content hosted and simply accessing these resources from whatever devices they use. Chrome OS (Operating System) will be released for laptops this year which will mark a significant milestone for this trend. At the same time, the momentum behind tablets seems like it will continue to drive increased adoption throughout the year. What this means is that many people will relegate the contents of their hard drives to the internet and adopt a cloud computing model which relies heavily on web applications. Should be an interesting to watch, just like 3D.

6. The year of stereoscopic 3D is coming... again

Ok, so it was pretty much a consensus that 2010 was the year of 3D. Want proof? Read this Oh No They Didn't! blog entry or any weekend edition of a newspaper from last year. Based on this, I'm going to make a prediction that 2011 will be the year that consumer stereoscopic 3D really begins to make a big splash away from the big screen. I expect that by year's end, we'll have seen stereoscopic 3D handheld gaming system (already on the way), 3D cameras and camcorders (already available), 3D tablets, 3D laptops, 3D phone apps, 3D websites, and I even believe that there might be an announcement of 3D billboards, although I don't think we'll see any actual installations this year. There's going to likely be a lot of fuming and fussing over compatibility between displays and glasses as well, which is another reason why I believe that although glasses-free systems are very limited, they will still capture a big segment of the stereoscopic 3D market.

5. The social web will become a new layer of the informational web

I believe that this year will see the first signs of a social layer to the web that basically extends beyond standard web sites to provide an experience of the internet that is both new and different. Technologies and standards like OAuth and OpenID will enable people on diverse social networks to interact actively. This will mean that you don't need to register for every website and service that you want to get access to. Honestly, just having to fill out a five-segment form has dissuaded my curiosity in many, many forums and other websites. So instead of clacking in another form, all you need to do is click a button that authorizes a service like, Google, Paypal or Facebook to share the required information with that particular website. What we will begin to see is services that extend this functionality so that people can communicate across various social networks and tools that allow you to take just the elements of your social network with you as you browse the web. E.g., you might be able to Facebook chat with someone on Gmail while you're shopping on eBay or browsing elsewhere on the web. All this without tabbing back and forth between windows. This is a sign of a true 'social' web because it abstracts your social contacts, information and services from the particular websites and providers. It will be similar to how cell phones work: you won't be stuck calling only the people on your network...

4. Smartphones will become priority targets for viruses

So-called smartphones tend to adopt a central role in our lives because the phone has become an integral feature of the world we live in. This devices gain unrivaled access to our personal information, habits, social connections and even geographic location. It is no wonder that privacy is a huge concern and the possibility that an app may sell personal information to advertisers is quite worrisome. Some application developers are actually undergoing a class-action lawsuit that alleges misuse of this privileged information. But while the legality of information propriety winds its way through the courts, one dangerous behemoth looms on the horizon for smartphones: malware. Since the information on your smartphone is basically a gold mine for all types of information, malware will begin to show up in larger numbers just has it has in pc's. Of course, if you only download verified, legitimate applications from the app stores, your chances are greatly reduced, the risk is still there that an e-mail attachment or website visit might expose your device to computer viruses. Just as the danger for viruses on Apple computers increases with each new device, the same will go for smartphones in the near future. I'll even go as far as to predict there will be a virus made especially for the iPhone / iPad family of products and it will not be pretty.

3. Cyber wars against companies and countries

This is one of the more baseless predictions that I am making, but we did see signs of this in the news last year.

• The was an attack by WikiLeaks supporters against PayPal, MasterCard, Visa and other companies. 
• The Stuxnet virus was allegedly targeted at specific industrial infrastructure in an Iranian nuclear power plant. 

I think there's a good chance that more of these semi-organized ddos attacks and infrastructure-targeted viruses will begin to show up in droves. I don't think they will cause significant harm, but I'm sure they will be all over the news. 

2. Beginning of the end for plastic cards??

Now, I am in no way saying that plastic form-factor credit cards are going away, or really anywhere for that fact. But considering the continued adoption of smartphones, it is only natural to expect that people will be more willing to let their phones pay the bill. However, security, reliability and acceptability are important to consumers and you also have the classic chicken-and-the-egg scenario. People may not want to ditch the card because what if the restaurant doesn't have a way to accept payments from the phone. Business may also not want to invest in the technology if there is not sufficient customer interest to make it sensible. And there are other concerns too e.g. what if your phone dies? But the undeniable fact here is that if everyone else is doing it, you will do it too. And  since everyone will have a smart(er) phone, it will only make sense for businesses and individuals to move towards this technology. Check out the way Hatians are adopting this: http://www.pri.org/business/nonprofits/mobile-banking-flourishes-in-haiti.html. I think that widespread adoption in the US will begin to show up by the end of this year.

1. Facebook will finally support video chat

This prediction is almost entirely speculative, but I just don't understand why Facebook does not natively support video chatting or partner with an entity that does like Skype. Facebook is making strides in other areas however, including e-mail and combined messaging services, the 'new' profile pages, and the push to get Facebook developers to use Oauth 2.0. This is why I'm quite sure that they have explored the idea and might have some pre-beta version floating around somewhere in Facebook. With increasing demand and adoption of video chatting on a massive scale, I think that Facebook will either have to support this natively or watch a lot of their chat usage drop away. Noone will quit using Facebook, they just won't use Facebook chat quite as much.

The take-away

There is no certainty about the direction that technology will go over any year. Although announcements of products are typically made months ahead of release, surprises abound without ceasing. Products at times show up on the market with little or no expectation, some expected products get delayed or shelved indefinitely, while other products get released but then removed from the market within weeks of the initial release. All this makes it quite difficult to speculate about where consumer technology will be in 12 months and that is also what makes it interesting. For the moment, however, I will enjoy this arbitrary opportunity to reflect on the past few months and to plan for the next. Since it is this difficult to know what next best thing will be, I'm trying hard to enjoy the tech stuff that I have now for as long as I can - landfills and developing countries could use less tech waste anyway. I hope that you have a happy 2011!

Anxiously Awaiting AUDI TTS Pikes Peak Climb (Autonomous Vehicle)

As the much-anticipated Pikes Peak Challenge for the autonomous vehicle by Stanford University approaches, I decided to take a look back at Odin and some research I did on the Victor Tango team and the DARPA urban challenge.

The Challenge
The Defense Advance Research Projects Agency is an arm of USDOD which has been birthplace for some of the greatest developments in technology of the late 20th Century, including the internet! DARPA had the first Grand Challenge in 2004 which featured a 150-mile road race with the most successful competitor reaching 7.38 mi. The second competition, held in 2005 featured a 132-mile off-road race was finished by five competitors and paved way for the Urban Challenge which was held in 2007.

Awesome-O
Last year, for my Introduction to Robotics course, my partner and I were tasked to research an application of robotics of our choice. Being an autonomous vehicle fanatic, I essentially did all the research myself and let him take care of compiling the presentation. After selecting to study the third-place finalist, Odin, I shot an e-mail over to the professor in charge of the project who replied with two papers: one about navigation, the other about  driving. I had previously learned a lot about path-following and simple algorithms from our very own autonomous vehicle:

Awesome-O - Our maze-solving robot

However, the two papers that I read exposed me to an impressively familiar combination of hardware and software tools used to produce an hierarchy of functionality that was much more reliable and drove full-scale vehicles.

Odin | Boss
The Victor Tango team of Virginia Tech utilized a slew of LabVIEW and NI software and interfaces to work with the many sensors, controllers and other instruments to achieve autonomy. The navigation paper describes a state machine architecture which identifies objects, sets goals and maneuvers around obstacles to reach a set destination. The following video from Wired provides an idea of what it takes for the competition champion,  Boss (Tartan Racing), although I'm not sure what the flux capacitor is used for. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lULl63ERek0

How can you get a car to drive all by itself?
Basically, the vehicle first receives instructions about where it needs to go and possibly how it should get there. It is also supplied with information regarding where it can or cannot go including some areas where some behaviors are restricted i.e. passing. By utilizing various combinations of instruments (LIDAR, RADAR, Differential GPS, INS, and various Optical Cameras), they are able to create a very accurate model of where the vehicle is and what is in its immediate (and sometimes distant) environment. From there, the software is able to 'make decisions' about how to behave and what exactly to do. Once an action decision is made, it is then carried out usually through drive-by-wire interface to the throttle, steering, shifting, and braking systems. The end result is an autonomous, driverless vehicle which can robustly reach a set destination irregardless of obstacles and the behavior of other vehicles. The whole is indeed greater than the sum of its parts:



Commercialization
The Urban Challenge was in 2007 and a lot really has happened since then. Most notable might be the commercial adoption of several autonomous features for parking and accident avoidance in luxury vehicles although this trend began way back in 1999 with the Japanese Nissan Cima. However, these commercial vehicles certainly have their limitations as well:



Shelley to Speed up Pikes Peak!
After winning the 2005 DARPA Grand Challenge with Stanley and placing second in the 2007 Urban Challenge with Junior, the Stanford Racing Team is betting against all the odds and limitations to brave the arduous Pikes Peak race next month (September 2010) with Shelley, an Audi TTS, named after "Michèle Mouton, the first female driver to win the uphill climb." - http://news.stanford.edu/news/2010/february1/shelley-pikes-peak-020310.html

"Unlike Stanley and Junior, who sense the road with radars and cameras, Shelley will follow a GPS trail from start to finish. The trick will be to stay on the road at race speeds while sliding around the corners."

Although the vehicle is not quite as autonomous as its predecessor, it is facing a daunting challenge and intends on doing so at ridiculous speeds. "If anything goes wrong on the summit, someone on the team can flip the "kill switch," Shelley's only remote control feature."


Excitement and Anticipation
I can't wait to see this car in action! Nerves are already on edge, media is starting to get excited and it's going to be a true spectacle to behold! If I can, I will try to go see it live. However, I still can't find a source which states the exact date in September that the timed race will be held. Now, if you're like me and can't wait, check out Shelley as she makes final preparations for the race:








Further reading:


Check out the August 12 Scientific American article - 

Automatic Auto: A Car That Drives Itself

February 3, 2010 Stanford University News article - 

Stanford's robotic Audi to brave Pikes Peak without a driver

If you would like a copy of the technical Virginia Tech publications, send me a message @fadeyifemi and I will connect you to my source.


Thanks for reading, hope this contributed a little to your Engineering Genius. Interested in more tech news, check out the T3CH H3LP blog I came across a little while back.

High-Tech Fashion and Integrated Personal Computing

Trends via TrendHunter.com.

Ubiquitous / Wearable Computers have been around for quite a while but they have seemed far too fanciful to me. However, i changed my mind the other day when I came across this Becoming Cyborg blog through two other tech blogs. Now, this is a very attractive wearable computer:

Sleek and comfortable -looking design uses a  Beagleboard mini computer and
features an iPhone for internet access.

It looks like he went through several iterations to arrive at this current model, the older models actually just worked with the iPhone as the computer and a different wearable display. Evolution:

Evolution of the concept from bulky iPhone display to wearable Unix computer.

But 'wearability' is not why I'm interested in these designs. I wanted to explore ubiquitous computing and natural interfaces. So ultimately, I'm curious about how computers can expand access to information without obscuring interaction with the real world. I'll refer to this as Integrated Personal Computing till I find a better word. Other similar terms you will find are pervasive computing and embedded computing. However, I think pervasive is more closely related to ubiquitous computing in that it refers to computing everywhere and in everything. Whereas, embedded computing would be more pertinent if the computer were somehow implanted or indistinguishable from the user or in the case of microcontrollers and other dedicated processors inside other devices. I feel that integrated personal computers will ultimately be realized as full-featured computers that are inconspicuous and feature natural user input.

Some wearable computers aren't much more so than my BlackBerry. They're both lightweight, can strap to my body, I enter input with my fingers and get output from a display. Advantage of the wearable display is hands-free viewing, which can be incredibly useful in certain situations. Also, when in the field, processing power almost linearly correlates with productivity. I can't take work out in the field if the computer can't run the software that I need or worse, if I end up staring at this half the time:

A few applications of wearable computing:

Bluntly  pragmatic wearable computer

Older implementation of a wearable display

Military application

Emergency Services

Telepresence - sort of an odd idea, read the description here

Leisure - Gaming?

Commercial - Logistics, Inventory management

Aircraft maintenance

Head-mounted displays come in many different shapes and sizes depending on the application. The Myvu brand of head-mounted displays is on par with the sleekest and most lightweight available today. The video below describes how to use a particular head-mounted display which also serves as input for a game.

Another crack at a head-mounted display:

This blog explains some concerns about wearable computing

Aside from the display portion of the user-interface is the user input. This versatility of input may ultimately affect how well an integrated personal computer can be utilized in the real world. Eye-tracking technology may offer accessibility for people with disabilities by utilizing eye-movements for input. This technology may also find future applicability to integrated personal computing as it allows hands-free user interface.

Eye-Tracking

Though not technically hands-free, the KITTY input device utilizes a novel input mechanism which may be inconspicuous enough for textual input in most applications.

KITTY integrated input device acts as a virtual keyboard

Motorola shows off a speech-operated computer that may offer a solution for hands-free input. The technology for speech recognition and command has improved significantly over the years, but as seen in the video, still has the glitches and annoyances that prove cumbersome at times.

The iPod Shuffle is a dedicated music player and not in any sense an open-ended computer. However, the speech output of the system is an impressive tool that may find use in other applications as well.

The Zypad, a product of Eurotech is a wrist-wearable computer that claims to be lightweight, ergonomic, yet full-featured. However, if you take a look at the specifications, with a 400mHz processor, 128mb RAM and 4 hours of battery life, you might be better off buying an iPhone 4 with an arm-band and strapping it to your wrist. I like the concept a lot, but the processing power seems dismal for most applications except stripped-down or dedicated software. These devices may possibly be useful in healthcare or for emergency response but they do not seem ruggedized enough to last very long.

Zypad wearable computer

Mobile devices at the forefront of computing power are much closer to integration on another front: augmented reality. Augmented reality seems to me a balance on the spectrum of virtual reality which supplements information from the real world with digital information. Here are some examples:

Augmented reality research

There are many other related technologies which may prove relevant to the advancement of integrated personal computing including flexible displays, health and energy monitoring devices, haptic technology, smart fibers, and swarm robotics among many others.

There is obviously much more to these ideas than is covered in this short exploration of mine. If you want to find out more about integrated personal computing? Check out the blogs listed above and the following sources:

http://www.computer.org/portal/web/pervasive/home

http://www.iswc.net/iswc10/inc_html/index.html

Turns out there might have been a problem with the 'fun' cipher from last week - I think they wrote it down wrong and it turned out making no sense. If you have any ideas, let me know, otherwise, I'll find some other challenge for the next update.